By Zaldy Dandan
SAIPAN, CNMI (Mariana Variety, Dec. 18, 2009) - IN the Commonwealth of the Northern Marianas Islands (CNMI), "confusion" and "uncertainty" are the words of the year, to describe the unspeakable and the unappealing.

But as I’ve been saying all along, there is no uncertainty — there is only dread. We know what’s in store for the CNMI economy. The global economic crisis and the downturn in tourism will now be compounded by the exodus of locals and nonresidents, which will further deplete the workforce and consumer base of the remaining businesses. (A businessman confided to me recently that another 5,000 drop in the population will force a lot of companies to downsize, again, or shut down.)

Moreover, with federal immigration rules now in effect, bringing in or attracting new investors have become more challenging. Companies that require cheap labor — the staple of the CNMI economy — cannot afford to do business here.

And so we have this "pro-business," "pro-self-government" administration watching helplessly as the economy crumbles and local control over immigration is taken away by the feds. There is irony here, and it would have been delicious, really, if not for the realization that this chain of events benefits no one.

The CNMI needs new thinking to adapt to these radical changes. But last month, a little over a half of the electorate preferred to cling to the past. Which means that the CNMI, for the next five years at least, is likely to be kicking and screaming as the people’s standard of living deteriorates.

The local people’s main employer, the CNMI government, is broke and there is no quick relief in sight. Its primary goal remains the retention of its employees, or at least those who voted the "right way" in the last elections.

There are federal grants, to be sure, but they come with restrictions.

There will be new "prospective investors," probably — but they will be here to find out if they can make a quick buck. These are the "fly by night" businesspeople with grandiose plans, colorful brochures, attractive Power Point presentations and investment money that exist in paper only. We’ve seen them before. We’ll probably see more of them.

The CNMI government, for well over a decade, has been listing the types of new businesses that can supposedly thrive here, but this effort, so far, is like fishing…in a swimming pool.

Surely, all this does not constitute "uncertainty." We are certain that nothing good will happen given the current state of the CNMI. We do not want it. We don’t like it. We’re still hoping against hope, but in our heart of hearts, we know that the next few years will be worse.

As for the guest workers, they are said to be "confused" with all these announcements regarding federalization, parole, advanced parole, umbrella permits and, now, the ombudsman’s ongoing registration of aliens.

But again, there is no confusion. What we have here is dismay — and frustration.

All along, guest workers believed, or were led to believe, that federalization would improve their immigration status. That was why they were for it. A lot of them also believed in the literal meaning of the phrase "federal takeover" — the feds would take over the CNMI government. Guest workers at the same time clung to the other magic word, "Organic," not even bothering to know more about it, or what it means; they preferred to believe that it was a good word and it would result in a better life for them once the feds take over.

And so when the U.S. Democrats finally recaptured both houses of Congress and a takeover bill was about to be passed and sent to the White House, there was jubilation among the guest workers. The bill, after all, would upgrade their status, would allow them to go to the promised land, to Vegas and Disneyland by golly. When the nonimmigrant status provision was deleted — due mainly to the opposition of Hawaii Congressman Neil Abercrombie and the Guam Legislature — guest workers still believed that federalization would be good, and by good they meant good for them. They insisted that the regs, surely, would have something wonderful for them. When the regs were announced and they had the chance to realize what these rules meant, that’s when all this talk of "confusion" began.

As I’ve said, it’s not confusion. It is the pain of disappointment. Where are the greener pastures? Where are the green cards?

We’re like kids finally realizing that Santa Claus doesn’t exist, or that professional wrestling is "fake."

But suddenly, and right in time for the holidays, the federal ombudsman announces that aliens in the CNMI should register with her office.

It was like a massive jolt of electricity that breathed life into the Frankenstein’s monster that guest workers call "hope."

Despite attorney Steve Woodruff’s sensible warning, hundreds, perhaps thousands, are registering everyday, including overstayers. They believe that the ombudsman is creating a list, and will check it twice, later, before Uncle Sam hands out those lovely green cards. They believe that if you’re not listed, you won’t get one.

I’m almost tempted to say nothing about this new cause of optimism among guest workers who, like everyone else, are only trying to improve their lives.

But the fact remains: the federalization law, as enacted, does not improve the immigration status of CNMI guest workers. Congress has to pass a new law to do that. Right now, there is no such bill.

Here is the relevant provision in the federalization law:

"h) Report on Nonresident Guestworker Population — The Secretary of the Interior, in consultation with the Secretary of Homeland Security, and the Governor of the Commonwealth, shall report to the Congress not later than 2 years after the date of enactment of the Consolidated Natural Resources Act of 2008. The report shall include:

• the number of aliens residing in the Commonwealth;
• a description of the legal status (under Federal law) of such aliens;
• the number of years each alien has been residing in the Commonwealth;
• the current and future requirements of the Commonwealth economy for an alien workforce;
• such recommendations to the Congress, as the Secretary may deem appropriate, related to whether or not the Congress should consider permitting lawfully admitted guest workers lawfully residing in the Commonwealth on such enactment date to apply for long-term status under the immigration and nationality laws of the United States."

Interior, in other words, must make a recommendation regarding the status of guest workers. A recommendation is a proposal to Congress which still has to introduce and pass a bill that must be signed by the president before it takes effect. How long will that take?

Next year, the U.S. will hold congressional elections, and the ruling Democrats will push for immigration reform — which is expected to provoke vicious anti-immigrant rhetoric among the Republicans, thus further cementing the Hispanic and other immigrant groups’ support for the ruling party.

Immigration reform will be the likely vehicle for any Northern Mariana Islands (NMI) guest worker status bill. But will it pass in an election year? Will the NMI delegate, for example, put his neck on the line for nonvoters? Abercrombie is resigning to run for Hawaii governor, but does that mean that the state’s other U.S. lawmakers will not oppose improved status for CNMI guest workers who are considered "competition" by the unions in Hawaii — and Guam?

There is, however, a new factor in this complicated political equation: the CNMI governor who sincerely wants to see guest workers remain in the commonwealth, but under local control. He is no longer running for re-election. He’s a free man, politically speaking. He can actually do what has to be done, what he believes must be done, without fear of any electoral backlash.

Hence, this shift in tactics on the part of the original guest worker advocacy group on island, Dekada.

The only unpredictable element in this never-ending saga is the governor — and perhaps the 17th CNMI Legislature which will serve for three, not two, years.

And on that intriguing note, I end this, my last column for 2009.

Happy Holidays!

Marianas Variety: www.mvariety.com
Copyright © 2009 Marianas Variety. All Rights Reserved