By Robson Tigona
PORT VILA, Vanuatu (Vanuatu Daily Post, Dec. 14, 2010) – Traditional cultures are very rich with knowledge that if used together with modern or western knowledge would be very effective, especially at these times as the earth is facing significant impacts of climate variability and change.

There are about 100 cultures in Vanuatu with lots of traditional knowledge in predicting tropical cyclone, significant rainfall and drought periods.

If these knowledge are put together would consists of chapters and chapters, that is, worthy of a book.

This knowledge had been passed down from generation to generation through thousands of years of observation. Some traditional knowledge and observation would be hundredth or fewer years though still valuable, as like the later had stood the test of time.

In light of the above, one such traditional observation that is common throughout the archipelago is the observation of the connection between mangoes and tropical cyclones. According to common traditional knowledge, whenever there is a period (Christmas holiday period) with abundant mangoes, there would be a major tropical cyclone that would follow. This traditional system of predicting tropical cyclones had proved to be effective as stated earlier. But there are areas that need to be explored and answered, that is, the other side of the coin, the scientific explanation of the connection between mangoes and cyclone.

There are some scientific facts about tropical cyclones that are very true. Tropical cyclone only forms in oceans, i.e. Pacific, Indian and Atlantic Oceans. For a tropical cyclone to form, the ocean must warm enough to at least about 28 degree Celsius or above (sustainably) for about a week. That is why tropical cyclones can’t form in cold water region such as New Zealand. So in Vanuatu (like the rest of southern hemisphere) the hot and wet season is from November to April. This season is also commonly known as the cyclone season or the mango fruit season. Tropical cyclone forms during this season, and at the same it is the mango season. This is normal, and there is no question about that.

In addition to the normal situation (of mangoes and cyclone) stated above, there are seasons when there were "abundant" supplies of mangoes. These were the times when our traditional local scientists predict a major tropical cyclone. These predictions were almost (if not all) precise. Because of its accuracy, then what is the scientific explanation?

The climate science had approved significant over the past decade, for instances, when satellite technology was developed for climate purpose since 1969 and instruments to measure ocean temperatures. With this technologies scientist were able to discover what is called the "Pacific Warm Pool or PWP". The PWP is the warm (usually greater than 28 degree Celsius) portion of the Pacific Ocean. Before global warming/climate change issue came to the scene the PWP already existed. The Warm Pool usually shifts between west and eastern Pacific.

When it shifted for instance to central Pacific (for example over Tahiti), the tropical climate of Tahiti will be "enhance" or "extra tropical". The "enhance" or extra tropical" climate of Tahiti will result in "abundant" supply of mangoes, and eventually a major cyclone for Tahiti because of the ideal condition for tropical cyclone to form from the PWP.

Likewise, when the WMP shifted to the western Pacific (Fiji, Solomon Islands, Vanuatu, and New Caledonia).

There will be abundant supply of mangoes and eventually a major cyclone. If recalled back major cyclones that had traversed the Vanuatu regions, it is apparent that almost all occurred when there were abundant mango fruits. This 2010/2011 Christmas season, the PWP had shifted to the western Pacific.

So we’re current having an abundant mango season in Vanuatu, thus there is a likely hood of a major cyclone during this season.

Traditional knowledge also has further explanation of "abundant" mangoes and cyclone. According to a well known traditional scientist in North Pentecost, abundant fruits (including mangoes) deprive nutrients from the soil, soil is deficient in nutrients.

Thus, Tagaro (God) use tropical cyclones to prune off fruits, leaves and branches to the ground where they will rot and enrich the soil again.

Hold fast to your traditional knowledge for they are much valuable in these modern times.

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